NAHB: 45 of 47 construction occupations sit in the BLS's low or moderate AI-exposure bands; only managers and inspectors rate high

The National Association of Home Builders published an analysis on 1 October, by economist Jing Fu, of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' new table "AI Exposure Categories and Employment Projections, 2025-35". Of 47 selected construction-related occupations, 45 - about 96 per cent - are classified as having "low" or "moderate" relative AI exposure. Two are classified "high": construction managers, and construction and building inspectors. None is "very high".

What the chart shows

NAHB plots each occupation's exposure band against the BLS's projected employment growth from 2025 to 2035, and finds no neat relationship between the two. Construction managers, in the high band, are projected to grow 9 per cent; inspectors, also high, to stay essentially flat. Solar photovoltaic installers, in the moderate band, are projected to grow 37 per cent - the fastest of the group.

The low band holds the hands-on trades: carpenters, construction labourers, roofers, operating engineers. NAHB's explanation is that these jobs "rely heavily on physical execution, changing jobsite conditions, safety judgment, coordination with other trades, and interaction with materials and equipment", which limits what software-based AI can reach. Managers and inspectors rate higher because of "planning, documentation, scheduling, compliance, reporting, and communication". That matches what builders told NAHB's Housing Market Index survey: when they use AI it is for advertising and marketing, project planning and project design.

What the measure is not

NAHB is careful about the table's limits, and the caveats are the BLS's own: the measure "indicates whether AI technology could be, or has been, used to assist with or complete some tasks performed in an occupation" and "does not predict job losses, automation, productivity gains, or wage effects". The 47 occupations exclude extraction work and leave out the architects, engineers, estimators, accountants and sales staff that construction firms also employ; and occupations are counted whatever industry employs them.

Low exposure now, NAHB adds, does not insulate the industry. It expects AI to arrive first as faster estimating and planning, document management, safety analysis, progress monitoring and decision support, with changes on site coming "more gradually through AI-enabled equipment, robotics, and computer vision".