Prime central London prices rose 0.3% in the quarter to September, the first quarterly rise in four years, Knight Frank says; still down 22% on the 2015 peak

Knight Frank published its September prime London sales index on 2 October: the PCL index at 5,004.4, the prime outer London index at 273.7, with a note by Tom Bill, head of UK residential research, under the heading "No News Has Been Good News for the Prime London Market".

Prices. "In September, stronger demand helped deliver the first period of quarterly price growth (+0.3%) in prime central London for four years. Prices fell 2% over the year, which was the smallest annual decline in 18 months." In prime outer London, "where demand has been more consistent and needs-driven", prices fell 0.6% in the year to September and "haven't moved by more than 1% in either direction since May 2025". Average prices in prime central London "have fallen by 22% since their last peak in August 2015".

Activity. Exchanges across prime central and prime outer London in the year to September were 2.5% down on the previous twelve months, "Knight Frank data shows. That compares to an equivalent drop of 14% in March." Above £10 million there were 121 transactions in the year to September, "which equalled the previous year, whole-market data shows", and total spend was 14% higher at £2.4 billion. The low point was last November, when 106 sales were recorded over the previous year, down from 155 in the twelve months to November 2024.

Why, in Knight Frank's reading. "This year has proved the theory that the mere absence of bad news fuels demand." Mortgage rates "fell towards 3.5%" early in the year, moved "closer to 4.5%" when the Middle East conflict broke out in March, and rose again in mid-September. Liza-Jane Kelly, head of London sales: "We are starting to see sellers become more realistic with their price. Some have been on the market for several years and want to get on with their lives." And: "What this year has clearly shown is that underlying demand strengthens quickly when the negative news fades."

What comes next. Two dates, in the note's words: "the Budget on 28 October, which will provide clarity around taxation", after a front-page report of a possible cut to the high-value council tax threshold, and the US mid-term elections on 3 November.

Every figure is Knight Frank's own index data, read off its page.